2012年2月13日月曜日

You Do Not Prove Anything With Statistics.

you do not prove anything with statistics.

You Can Prove Anything With Statistics


Somebody asked  the other day " Division of  Statistics Initiatives, what is it?

To tell the truth, I am not  exactly sure. Its existence was unknown to me  until the Planning Director informed me  a development application had been referred to the division during the application process.

I was aware there was one at the  Region  in the  CAO's office . Aurora's CAO was its manager prior to appointment here.

But we all  know the value of  statistics. Anything can  be argued ..

The town's last police chief was particularly fond of statistics.

We had a department  fourteen strong.  There was a murder one year.  None the next. According to statistics, that was a hundred per cent reduction in the murder rate.Naturally  reduction by one hundred per cent in the murder rate  was attributed to excellent police work..


Prove It With Figures: Empirical Methods in Law and Litigation (Statistics for Social and Behavioral Sciences)
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Hans Zeisel

The murder was never solved.  Naturally  it meant we needed more detectives. Of course, you can't  reduce manpower on the streets.That would lead to an increase in the murder rate and other  mayhem. Which naturally meant we needed  more manpower.

In  2010,water rates were increased by 12%. Water loss estimates were  increased from 8% to !2% Which contributed to the increase in water rates.

I asked for  numbers of  breaks to support the rational for  water loss. We spend millions  in   infrastructure maintenance presumably to avoid water breaks and other water loss. Water loss should therefore have gone down rather than up.. The directors  refused to provide the numbers. I was informed they were afraid I would distort the figures.

Recently we received a graph  showing numbers of water breaks; an average of eight a year..

We don't fix them ourselves. We contract them out.We contract out snow plowing, sidewalk snow plowing.  street sweeping and street light maintenance


Statistics can prove anything.(Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System firearms ownership)(Editorial)(Statistical table): An article from: American Gunsmith
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Keith Laurence

We retain consultants to design  roads and sidewalks.We have policies we stick to as if  they are  cast in concrete or chiseled in stone.

Last night  committee   recommended approval to council ,to  call for contracts for sewer uplift pumps and generators.

We buy fleets of vehicles.

In 2010, we bought a street sweeper for $150,000. or maybe it was $184,000 It's hard to keep track of  the figures.

When the first snow fell, remains of the autumn leaf drop and other litter were still on the streets  and around the  catch basins and blowing into surrounding shrubbery.

School children will go out  with the Mayor on a  Spring  day and pick up  litter that wasn't removed by  town's contracted street sweepers in their second and last sweep of the year.

It seems everything that can be contracted out by public works  has been.

It should mean less yard space required. Fewer vehicles. Less shop space.

It doesn't.


A space needs consultant. was retained .  He reports the need for  additional space to accommodate our  continuing burgeoning population of manpower,vehicles and equipment at an estimated cost of $17 million.

It appears contractors we retain to save on  manpower, vehicles, equipment and supplies, store their vehicles, equipment and supplies in our yard and possibly use the building's amenities as well. Why wouldn't they? 

Harry Fry's  dismantled barn  is also  in the works yard.  It was previously stored  at  the hydro building. We retained a contractor to move it  to the works yard when we leased the hydro building to the Department of National Defence  under a secret agreement for less  rent than we will spend on the building in the first several years of the ten year lease.

There are  no plans I know of  to re-erect  Harry Fry's barn .


We made a developer dismantle it and truck it to the hydro building because it was unique in Ontario, according to the  heritage expert on our payroll.



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